About a year ago, two of my best friends tied the knot. Zach had given a knockout speech at my wedding the year before, so here’s the toast (and light roast) that I gave to the happy couple. It seems to have worked because they’re happier than ever today. Cheers to many more!
Zach has been my best friend since the third grade, although it feels more like I’ve been a part of the Routh family since the third grade.
When we were little, Mr. Routh would take us to high school football games, Mrs. Routh would take us to events at Christ Moravian, Nathan would pick on me and Zach, and naturally, me and Zach would pick on Jacob. We even went to Laurel Ridge together in the third grade, although I got homesick and didn’t go back until Spencer hosted Zach’s 30th birthday party at Laurel Ridge a few months ago.
A few years later, Spencer, Zach, and I all went to the same high school. I didn’t know Spencer at the time but apparently Spencer knew who Zach and I were. And apparently, she thought Zach and I were cool, although I’m not really sure why. Me and Zach were on the academic team, which wasn’t exactly very popular. And just to put Zach’s coolness in perspective, some of his hobbies over the next few years would include reading books about traffic, taking classes about lawn care, and growing a mullet. But hey at least Zach had the football thing going for him at the time.
As far as I know, Zach and Spencer probably met at Laurel Ridge when they were in high school, although I’m not exactly sure because I never went back to camp because of the whole third grade incident. Anyways, I think it took a few years for Zach to become cool enough for Spencer to finally give him a shot. They reconnected a few years later in 2018 and I could tell Zach was totally smitten. I don’t think I ever told Zach but I definitely remember thinking, “dude she’s way too cool for you.”
At the time, Spencer’s best quality, at least from my eyes, included the fact that her parents had a sweet beach house. But over time I learned that she has so many other amazing qualities. And as their relationship grew, Spencer quickly integrated into our friend group called the Revolution. She fit right in with the boys because she’s always down to camping, sit through back to back football games, scheme on new business ventures, and even invite us to her parent’s beach house. But as time went on, my favorite thing about their relationship is that it’s never felt like I’ve been losing my best friend to a girl, it feels like me and Zach have both gained a new best friend.
Spencer, I’m trusting you to take over some of the daily duties of being Zach’s best friend. These duties include hiding photos of Gio Bernard around the house, always keeping a stash of Smirnoff Ice and banana liquor on hand, and making up games that always put Zach at a slight disadvantage. But I’ve got to warn you that being Zach’s best friend isn’t always easy. I don’t remember why but in 2008 Zach posted on my Facebook wall, “Hey I just kicked Blake’s ass and you’re next.” And one piece of advice– don’t ever make a sports related bet with Zach. One time Zach and I were playing basketball, I lost a best on a half court shot, and had to sleep outside on the porch that night.
Zach, I’m not sure how you did it, but you really did hit way out of your league in finding Spencer, and I couldn’t imagine a better match for either of you.
Zach and Spencer, I love both, don’t miss your 7am flight tomorrow. Cheers!
Note Zach has been a regular feature and contributor to my blog. See more of Zach here.
My core friend group is a tight circle that hasn’t changed in over 10 years… until recently. One of the core members got a new boyfriend (thanks online dating) and we’ve decided to fully welcome him into the group. The only problem is this new member hasn’t gotten to spend a lot of time with Bobby yet, who’s apparently too busy being a new parent to hang out with us every weekend now. Whatever. Bobby’s a simple enough guy that I can tell you everything you need to know about Bobby in just a few pictures.
1. Bobby is always hungry. His goal is to put 2,000 calories in every smoothie. And his idea of a side for a bagel is a croissant.
2. He never misses a good photobombing opportunity (especially when he’s in costume)
3. I’m pretty sure he could have been a model.
4. Although he’s also kind of weird.
5. And makes this one face he makes when he’s disappointed (although thankfully we don’t see this one very often).
6. But overall he’s a great friend and gives great hugs.
The rules of our Fantasy Football Football league are pretty simple: if your team scores the least amount of points across the entire league for the week, you have to chug a Smirnoff Ice and send video proof to the group.
There are 10 teams in the league but only four of us have had the (dis)honor of being the biggest loser of the week. But of these losers, who’s the winner with the fastest chug?
Video replay confirms that yours truly is the undisputed winner of the losers, sweeping first, second, and third place. Props to Carter though for stepping up with a massive 24 oz. Smirnoff Ice—double the size of everyone else’s—and taking it down like a champ (featured in the top left and top middle-right squares of the video). Zach snagged 5th, 6th, and 7th place, earning a few brownie points for the unique backdrops in his videos. Will, in his rookie season, faced a tough initiation with subpar performances both on and off the field.
Welcome to the big leagues, where even the losers can be winners—if they can chug fast enough.
Over the past year, Brittany and I have embarked on a cinematic journey, watching 46 movies in theaters over 365 days. From Halloween thrillers to box office flops, this has sparked our curiosity to learn more about the trends and insights into the movies we love. Join us as we dive into the data behind movie budgets, ratings, and profits, along with a brief refresher from your high school statistics class.
We prefer to go on Thursday’s when new movies are released. We saw 24 of 46 movies on opening weekend
Using the AMC A List (movie subscription pass), we paid ~$5.60 per ticket; 59% less than a standard ticket ($13.36) and 73% less than an Imax/Dolby ticket ($20.41)
Most of those movies we saw were dramas, action movies, or comedies (note some movies had more than one genre)
We saw six movies from both Paramount Pictures and Sony Pictures
Ready to dive deeper into the stats?
You could watch the shortest movie (Bottoms) 2.2x before the longest movie is over (Killers of the Flower Moon).
Of all the movies, these were the biggest financial hits (at least for opening weekend), generating more box office revenues during opening weekend (red) than the film’s budget (blue)
Generally, the production company gets to keep 50-60% of the box office revenues from opening weekend and the theater owner get to keep the remaining 40-50%. However, this split is contentious and often varies based on the strength of the film and the bargaining power of both the production company and the theater. After opening weekend, that split often shifts over subsequent weeks such that the production company’s cut decreases and the theater’s share increases.
There are plenty of exceptions but opening weekend box office revenue carries an outsized importance because it often sets the tone for the film’s entire theatrical run. By Sunday of opening weekend, studio executives can predict with great accuracy what a movie will earn by the time it leaves the cinema. Ticket sales are the largest driver of income for movies, although not necessarily the most profitable because of taxes and the cut owed to the theater. Other sources of revenue for the production company include DVD sales, on-demand rentals, licensing income from streaming services, and merchandising.
This reliance on opening weekend box office revenues is changing though. Film critic Bilge Ebiri explained, “Hollywood is in the midst of a transition… [they’re creating] Fewer gigantic productions that need massive opening weekends to justify their humongous costs; [and] more solid films that can turn a profit over a few weeks and months thanks to good word of mouth. The smash-and-grab opening-weekend strategy was never going to be sustainable, and the industry had become alarmingly reliant on an increasingly small handful of titles saving their bottom lines.”
This transition may include a larger reliance on sequels and related works. Of the five movies above, four aren’t entirely original stories. Barbie has the doll, Five Nights at Freddy’s is based on a video game, and Spider man and Maxxxine are both sequels. In total, 14 of the 46 movies we watched were direct sequels or part of a movie series, and several more were based on books or other works. TheFilmAutopsy explained sequels “just make more money,” and the limited data we collected tends to agree. On average, a sequel generated box office revenues equal to ~50% of its total budget during opening weekend, whereas novel movies only returned ~41%.
In general, longer movies had moderately better reviews (r=0.52, p=.002)
The correlation coefficient (aka “r” value) measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. The value can range from -1 to 1. A value of 0 would indicate that two variables aren’t related at all (like your shoe size and reading ability), whereas a value of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship between two variables (like degrees Fahrenheit and degrees Celsius). The r value of of 0.52 here indicates there’s a moderately positive relationship between a movie’s run time and it’d IMDb rating.
The p-value helps determine the significance of the results. In this scenario, the p-value is the probability of observing the results below if run time and IMDb rating were not correlated at all (meaning an r-value of 0). This dataset has a p-value of 0.0002 (0.02%), giving us confidence that these results are not random and that there is positive relationship between run time and IMDb rating. To be considered statistically significant, most fields look for a p-value of less than .05.
The line of best fit (aka regression line) shown in red is a straight line that best represents the data on the scatter plot below. The formula for the straight line can be line described by the formula y=mx+b, where y is the IMDb rating, m is the slope of the line, x is the movies run time, and b is a constant representing where the line crosses the y axis. Altogether, we can use this formula to estimate a movie’s IMDb rating as “IMDb Rating=0.016×Run Time+4.817.” The constant of 4.817 isn’t meaningful in itself, but suggest a movie with a run time of 0 minutes (a hypothetical scenario) would have an IMDb rating of 4.817. For every incremental minute, the slope of the line suggest that the IMDb rating would increase by 0.016 point.
This data makes intuitive sense given that longer movies have more time to develop characters and storylines, which could potentially lead to a better overall movie and higher ratings.
But strangely, getting better reviews doesn’t necessarily mean that more people are going to go see that particular movie on opening weekend (r=0.243, p=0.104)
The trend line in red does indicate a weak positive correlation between a movie’s IMDb rating and opening weekend box office revenue. However, the p value of 0.104 suggests that there’s a 10.4% of obtaining this result (or something even more extreme) even if the variables weren’t related at all. Based on that, we can’t confidently claim that higher IMDb ratings correlate with higher opening weekend box office revenues.
Why aren’t these variables more correlated? I had a few theories:
Opening weekend box office revenue is probably more related to how much the production company spent on marketing and advertising for the movie beforehand. You’re probably not going to go see a movie that you’ve never heard of, right? I’ll investigate this further below. Note I would have liked to use total box office revenue instead of just opening weekend box office revenue, however it wouldn’t have been fair since several of these movies are still in theaters.
More people want go to the movies around certain holidays or peak seasons (like Halloween or Valentine’s Day), even if the movies aren’t that great. For example, Brittany and I went to see the horror movie “Five Nights at Freddy’s” around Halloween and the romantic comedy “Anyone But You” around Valentine’s Day, even though we weren’t particularly excited about either film.
Reviews are a lagging indicator. I’ve noticed that a movie’s IMDb rating tends to start out very high and gradually decrease over time. For example, if you go see a movie on opening night, you probably already know that you were going to like the movie before it even started. But as more people go see a movie, the rating usually decreases closer to it’s truer and long-term average. Since these movies all came out at different times, this probably isn’t a fair dataset. Or maybe IMDb is just rigged.
Just like politics, it’s all about the money. Higher movie budgets don’t lead to better reviews (r=.089, r=0.55), but they do lead to higher opening weekend box office revenue (r=0.467, p=.001).
The chart on the left is all over the place, driving home the point that higher budgets don’t correlate with higher IMDb ratings. The r value indicates a weak correlation, however even if that were true, the p-value of 0.55 indicates that there’s a 55% chance that the observed data could occur even if budget and IMDb were totally unrelated. Therefore, we conclude that there’s no significant evidence that higher budgets lead to higher IMDb ratings.
On the other hand, the chart on the right indicates that higher budgets do lead to higher opening weekend box office. This isn’t a surprise. With more money, studios will bring in more famous actors, hire better producers, and spend more money on advertising. The r-value of .467 suggests a moderately positive correlation between a movie’s budget and opening weekend box office revenue, and the p value of .001 gives us high confidence that the correlation is statistically significant. The slope of the trend line (m=.202) suggests that for every additional million dollars in a movie’s budget, the opening weekend box office revenue is expected to increase by approximately $0.202 million (or $202,000).
So what does all this mean?
Our sample size is too small to reach any major conclusions other than we’ve had a great time on our 46 date nights at the movies. We’re looking forward to more movies coming up (Joker 2, Wicked, Bettlejuice, etc.), which may turn into more blog insights, but until then, check out my last movie blog where I’m “Reviewing Movie Reviewers.”
Twelve years ago, Mount Tabor High School voted George as the “Most Intelligent” student (see proof here). Does he still have that edge? To find out, I put together this personalized jeopardy game to test George’s trivia skills against his friends and classmates. George’s team took the win here, do you think you could beat him?
It gets better every day. Over the past year, we’ve settled into our new home, went on an amazing honeymoon in Mexico, and cherished the ups and downs of every day life. And part of that happiness is due to the great advice we received from friends and family along the way, including:
My sister, who evidently watches a lot of TV
“I’ve learned a lot about marriage from watching Family Feud.
Support your team – even if the answer is not the best, respond with “good answer, good answer” Same goes in marriage, support one another’s dreams and goals and be each other’s biggest cheerleader
When asked after a lighting round, always say “we wanna play, Steve!” – I hope in your marriage you’ll always be willing to play, take a risk and go all in. And finally,
Win or lose, celebrate and act like you just won the prize – This one is pretty self explanatory, but have fun and hold each other tight during the good and hard times that life may bring you.”
Erin
Carol, who knows exactly how to lighten the mood
“I know I’m supposed to offer up relationship advice, but I’m single with a cat, so what do I know?! So here’s a Mad Lib from the wedding party instead:
What’s some advice that’s worth its weight in STEEL? First, let’s be real. FLOOFY disagreements are inevitable and can be as petty as fighting over whether to order curried CHEESECAKE or CHOCOLATE MOLTEN CAKE. Just remember that a(n) SPICY wife is a(n) HAIRY life. And when you act like a KERFLUFFLE, just apologize! Get in the habit of saying BYE BUDDY, HOPE YOU FIND YOUR DAD! And never go to bed BOTHERED.
Remember to fan the DOGS of romance. Draw up a luxurious SMIRNOFF ICE bath and light some UN-SCOOPED KITTY LITTER scented candles for your beloved. But in all seriousness, the most important advice I can offer is to choose to love each other every day, even the hard ones, and always have fun.”
Caroline
Becca, who must’ve had a bad experience in the past…
“Get the absolute best Christmas tree stand you can. It’ll save your marriage.”
Becca
Garrett, my big brother from another mother
“Savor all the time you can and make mental images. But also make space for yourselves and remember it’s okay to be a little selfish with your time and preferences.
Garrett
Carter, quoting Nickelback
“I’m gonna trade this life for fortune and fame. I’d even cut my hair and change my name… Hey, hey, I wanna be a rockstar”
Carter
Brittany’s uncles, who have collectively been married for a very long time
“See if you’re still smiling in 25 years. LOL.”
Danny, Wayne, and Nick
Bobby, who forgot I’m a practicing martial artist
“Conflict is good sometimes.”
Bobby
Casey, who can rock the piano and your heart
“Love is like a pool. Take the plunge and meet in the middle where you’re both the most vulnerable.”
Casey
Brittany’s dad, the most photogenic person in the room
I’m in an exclusive small group that trades marginally politically incorrect memes that you probably wouldn’t want your grandmother to see. The group, aptly named “send memes,” has some of my best friends, some of my friends’ friends, and even a few celebrities like Dwayne the Rock Johnson (who was added against his will and never actually opened the chat). By now you probably already know I like to rank things, so let’s dive in. Who’s the best at finding and sharing memes?
The results were measured by looking at every meme posted in the group over the past three years and keeping track of which posts got the most “likes,” and who sent them. There’s probably over 5,000 memes in the chat but the “best of the best” memes all have at least six “likes” from the group, and usually involve satire, poking fun at PC culture, an irreverent twist on current events, or strangely, The Lord of the Rings. So here are the winners and losers, ranked by the number of memes submitted with 6+ “likes.” I’ve also included a sampling of each person’s top memes.
Ryan, Jimmy, and Wes were neck and neck heading into the fourth quarter but Ryan ultimately pulled away with the most consistent (meme) running game
1st Place: Ryan
With eight memes on the leaderboard, Ryan was the clear choice for the winner by volume. His posts generate widespread acclaim for mocking the absurdities of modern life; specializing in pop culture and office humor. Ryan is your bread and butter RB1.
A close second, Jimmy puts up powerful memes that bring back some serious childhood memories like binge watching Lord of the Rings, playing Pokemon Yellow until 4am, and fighting with your friends over the Halo controller. This friendly rivalry could turn into an all out fist fight come playoff season.
Wes is a serious contender, having shared the most popular meme ever in the group shown below. I don’t totally understand it but I guess everyone else does. Regardless, Wes’ has an undisputed monopoly on timely and spicy memes on current events.
Luke is a dark horse candidate that could blast into the top 3 on a moment’s notice. He can take any scenario and spin it in a completely different direction with his sinister humor.
Thomas is the group wildcard. He excels in finding obscure accounts and going straight for the shock factor. Some of his posts don’t always land but when they do, they’re big.
I expected a better performance out of Sean since he largely brought this group together. He’ll sneak in with some fire memes but we really need to see more from him.
Addison has strong potential based on his quick trigger for being the first person in your contact list to share viral memes. He’s down on the list but don’t count him out.
Jeff deserves to keep his starting position but we’d keep him near the bottom of the batting order. Even so, he’ll impress you with you his brashness and absurdity. Daniel Radcliffe rapping? Classic.
Back in the day Zach was a mean linebacker for our high school football team. Nowadays he’s the king of dad jokes and often reminisces about we would’ve been state champions if coach had put him in in the fourth quarter. Is Zach a “has been” or is he just getting starting with his new career in the meme game? I’m thinking its the latter.
Tied for 8th place: Eric
Covid-19 led to some of best memes of our generation. However these memes became a dime a dozen as Covid dragged on. We’ll have to wait and see if Eric can tread water in the new meme environment.
These guys have never even had the courage to dream about standing on the winner’s podium. They’d rather fake a tummy ache than go up to bat with the game on the line. In fact, over three years and thousands of at bats, they’ve never even gotten on base. Their memes are old, tired, or non-existent.
Are you smarter than the 2012 Mount Tabor academic team? Or Zach’s 9th grade social studies class? Or have you at least read my blog posts? Take the four round quiz here to find out. My mom currently holds the record at 24/40 questions correct.
Round 1: But did you really read my blog though?
Round 2: Homeownership 101
Round 3: Rock and Roll Trivia
Round 4: Are you smarter than a high schooler?
Here’s the leaderboard as of 7/27/23. Let me know your score in the comments and I’ll add you to the list.
Artificial intelligence could soon put my blog out of business. But before throwing in the towel, who’s posts do you like more? To find out, I took some of my old posts and asked ChatGPT to answer the same topics.
1. What was the coolest cell phone in the early 2000’s?
Ryan:
The Samsung Juke. It doubles as an mp3 player, fits in your pocket, and the clock is reasonably accurate. The only con is that I’m not sure if it can actually make a phone call or not.
ChatGPT:
The Nokia 3310. With its physical buttons that required a Herculean effort to press, texting on the Nokia 3310 was like playing a high-stakes game of finger gymnastics. If you mastered the art of texting on this phone, you were considered a modern-day Shakespeare.
The George Foreman Grill, as presented by Evan and voted on by the Revolution
ChatGPT:
The Washing Machine.
It’s a marvel of modern technology, freeing us from the ancient burden of hand-washing clothes. It’s like having a magical vortex that devours your dirty laundry and spits out fresh, clean garments. But beware of the treacherous sock-eating monster that lurks within.
Colin’s Apple Cider, from my sister’s 1st grade class cookbook. Note this recipe has more sugar than water, and one of the ingredients is “one bowl.” Some of the other recipes in the cookbook included bizarre ingredients like 20 bumble bees??, raw eggs and flour (yuck!), and then nonsensical instructions like “cook at 12 for 11.”
ChatGPT:
Apple Explosion Delight:
Take peeled apples and give them a nice roll in glitter. Make sure they sparkle like magical disco balls. It’s all about that glitz and glamour in our recipe.
In a large bowl, combine the toothpaste and ketchup. Stir it up until it becomes a sticky, colorful mess. This is our top-secret sauce that will bring all the flavors together. Or maybe not.
5. Name something useful you learned from your dad
Ryan:
With boats, don’t ask how much it’s going to cost. You don’t want to know. Just do it.
ChatGPT:
Having a secret stash of snacks strategically hidden throughout the house ensures a constant supply of deliciousness. Whether it’s a bag of chips behind the sofa or cookies in the bathroom cabinet, be prepared for any snacking emergency.
6. Can you turn your craziest dream into a movie idea?
Ryan:
Movie Title: The Pirate from the Shadows
Plot: My sister Erin and I find out we have an evil step-brother. Because of a traumatic incident as a child at Disney World, he thinks he’s a pirate, and has been locked away for years in a mental hospital. He escapes and comes after our family for revenge, armed with a pirate ship and crew.
ChatGPT:
Movie Title: Chronicles of the Quantum Dreamers
Plot: In a world where dreams come alive and reality bends to the whims of the subconscious, a quirky group of individuals discover they possess the ability to control their dreams and enter a shared dream realm called the “Quantum Dream.”
Our protagonist, Max, a socially awkward math genius, finds himself trapped in a perpetual dream loop where he’s chased by a horde of rubber duckies armed with laser guns. Desperate to escape this nightmarish cycle, he stumbles upon an underground society of Dreamers, led by the enigmatic Dr. Lucidia.
Dr. Lucidia reveals that the Quantum Dream is under threat from an evil dream villain known as the Nightmare King, whose malevolent presence is infecting dreams with fear and chaos. Max, along with a colorful crew of fellow Dreamers, including a retired circus performer who controls dreams through juggling and a talking cat with a knack for riddles, embarks on a mind-bending quest to stop the Nightmare King and restore balance to the dream realm.
The only thing more broken than Carter’s love life is his wallet. As a broke high school student in 2012, he ordered the market price steak and lobster, and just about cried when the $80 check came. Moral of the story, Carter, if you have to ask… you still can’t afford it!
ChatGPT:
Carter, you’re like our very own Fez from That ’70s Show. I mean, with that wild hair and those big, innocent eyes, it’s like you were plucked straight out of the Jungle Book. And let’s be real here, we’re not entirely convinced you know how to read. Remember that time in Spanish class when the teacher asked about your weekend plans, and all you could muster up was “uhhhhh poptarts?” Yeah, Carter, we’ve got our doubts.
8. How much does it cost to have a girlfriend per month?
Ryan:
Grand Total: $70.50
May 1: Britt bought ice cream for both of us. Running total: -$3.50. May 4: Britt bought me a cocktail at Calavera. Running total: -$13.50. May 8: I bought ice cream. Running total: -$10. May $19: I bought a round of drinks at Top O. Running total: -$4. May 20: Erin (my sister) gave me tickets to a Brad Paisely concert. Cost: free! We went to dinner beforehand at the Loop. Running total: $5.50. May 23: Dinner at Imbibe, I had a gift card so it was basically free. Don’t go here for food though… 1 star. May 31: So this one’s on me. I really wanted to go to a Green Day concert and I think the only way I could convince anyone to go with me was if I buy a ticket for Britt. Running total: $70.50.
ChatGPT:
Grad Total: $220
Gift expenses: $50 – Because nothing says “I love you” like a bouquet of half-price gas station flowers and a last-minute, on-sale box of chocolates. Romance on a budget, folks!
Date nights: $100 – We’re talking about those fancy candlelit dinners at the finest fast-food establishments, complete with the extra-value meal and a shared soda. Classy, yet cost-effective.
Movie outings: $40 – Catching the latest blockbuster movies on discount Tuesdays, armed with a smuggled-in bag of stale popcorn and a pocketful of expired coupons.
Miscellaneous surprises: $30 – This includes those spontaneous moments of chivalry, like buying her a dollar store trinket or surprise serenading her with a kazoo rendition of her favorite song.
Emotional support: Priceless – Because being there for each other during good times, bad times, and the “I can’t decide what to wear” times is invaluable. Cue the sentimental music.
The big "R" in Ryan 